2025年，国际主要能源机构相继发布新版中长期能源展望报告。对比分析这些机构的最新能源展望报告，聚焦一次能源需求、能源消费结构及电力发展趋势等关键领域和指标，结果表明，未来全球能源消费总量仍将增长，但增速放缓；能源结构持续向低碳清洁方向转型，2050年煤炭和石油消费量显著下降，天然气在过渡期内呈阶段性增长，非化石能源消费占比提升至50%以上，成为能源供应主体；电力需求显著增长，2050年需求总量达到40万亿～80万亿千瓦时，电力结构将以新能源电力为主导。中国能源需求即将达峰并进入平台期。煤炭消费量在2025年前后达峰后大幅下降，石油消费量在2030年前后达峰后缓慢下降，天然气消费量在2040年前保持增长；中国能源结构低碳化进程加速，非化石能源占比持续上升，逐步成为能源供应的主力，2050年非化石能源消费量在中国一次能源消费总量中的占比将增加至40%～80%。

In 2025,major international energy organizations successively released updated versions of their medium-and long-term energy outlook reports.A comparative analysis of these reports focusing on such key areas and indicators as primary energy demand,energy consumption structure,and power development trends reveals that future global primary energy consumption will continue to grow at a slowing pace,the energy mix is undergoing a sustained transition toward a low-carbon and cleaner mode,coal and oil consumption are projected to decline significantly,natural gas is expected to experience phased growth by 2050,the share of non-fossil energy in global consumption is set to rise to over 50%,establishing it as the dominant source of energy supply,and electricity demand is projected to increase substantially,reaching between 40 and 80 trillion kWh by 2050,with the power generation mix becoming increasingly dominated by new energy sources.In China,energy demand is expected to peak in the near future and then decline gradually,coal consumption is anticipated to decrease markedly after peaking around 2025,oil consumption will decrease slowly after peaking around 2030,natural gas consumption is projected to grow continuously until 2040,and the decarbonization of China’s energy structure is accelerating,with the share of non-fossil energy in primary energy consumption projected to rise to between 40% and 80% by 2050,gradually becoming the mainstay of the country’s energy supply.